• Home
• About the Book
• About the Author
• Table of Contents
• Read "Winning the Peace"
• Contact
• Comments

• TOC Links
• Ch. 1
• Ch. 2
• Ch. 3
•      - 3.1
•      - 3.2
• Ch. 4
•      - 4.1
•      - 4.2
•      - 4.3
•      - 4.4
•      - 4.5
• Ch. 5
• Ch. 6
•      - 6.1
•      - 6.2
• Ch. 7
•      - 7.1
•      - 7.2
•      - 7.3
•      - 7.4
• Ch. 8
•      - 8.1
•      - 8.2
•      - 8.3
• Ch. 9
•      - 9.1
•      - 9.2
•      - 9.3
• Ch. 10
• Ch. 11
•      - 11.1
•      - 11.2
• Ch. 12
•      - 12.1
•      - 12.2
• Tables
• Figures
• Bibliog.

Appendix 2. Figures

Appendix 2.1. Simulations of the Probability of Civil War

Figure 2a: Probability of Civil War at Low/High Levels of Political Rights and Variable Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalisation

Figure 2b: Probability of Civil War at Low/High Levels of Income and Variable Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalisation

Figure 2c: Probability of Civil War at Low/High Levels of Natural Resource-Dependence and Variable Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalisation

Notes

These figures are based on the model in the appendix. The probability of civil war is estimated using a random effects probit and a 5-year panel data-set of 161 countries from 1960-99. Polity is a measure of political rights, ranging from -10 (minimum) to 10 (maximum). RGDP is real per capita GDP, purchasing power parity-adjusted. ELF is the ethno-linguistic fractionalisation index discussed in the text (ranging from 0 in homogeneous societies to 100 in heterogeneous societies). PRIMEX measures natural resource-dependence, proxied by primary exports as percent of GDP. The appendix presents the statistical results for the core model.

Source: Ibrahim Elbadawi and Nicholas Sambanis, Why Are There So Many Civil Wars in Africa?: Journal of African Economies, December 2000.